Highlighting the thinkers and their ideas driving the evolution of Offsite Construction. 
Be inspired, be informed, be innovative!

What Early Design Decisions in Offsite Construction Really Decide — and Why Many Teams Learn This Too Late

Once builders and developers decide to explore offsite construction, the conversation usually turns quickly to design.

How big can the modules be (or even how small)?
How many can we stack?
Can we push spans, heights, or layouts a bit further?

Those are fair questions. Necessary ones, even.

But after decades inside modular manufacturing and project execution, I’ve learned that size, weight, and dimensional limits are rarely just design questions. They are early signals of much larger consequences—many of which don’t become visible until commitments have already been made.

And that’s where trouble starts.

The Mistake Isn’t Asking About Size — It’s Assuming That’s the Whole Question

Builders naturally focus on what they can see: floor plans, elevations, room layouts.

What’s less visible is how those decisions ripple through an entire system.

A few extra feet of width.
A heavier floor assembly.
A taller module to accommodate mechanical runs.

Each of those choices can quietly affect transportation costs, crane requirements, routing approvals, production speed, set sequencing, and even which factories are capable of producing the work in the first place.

The problem isn’t that builders ask about size and weight.

The problem is assuming those answers live in isolation.

They don’t.

Weight Is a Logistics Question Disguised as a Structural One

Weight often gets discussed in terms of structural adequacy—can the floor handle the load, can the framing support the span.

But weight also dictates:
• Transportation equipment
• Axle configurations which dictate the turning radius
• Permitting requirements
• Escort needs that contribute to transportation costs
• Crane size and pick radius
• Site access and staging limitations

Weight didn’t break the project.
Unanticipated consequences did. (Budgeting for a 100-ton crane, now I need a 150-ton crane)

Dimensions Set Boundaries Long Before the First Module Ships

Module width, length, and height are often treated as factory constraints.

In reality, they are project constraints.

They influence:
• How many units fit on a truck or can multiple loads be considered
• How many trips are required
• Whether over-height or over-width permits apply
• How modules navigate roads, bridges, and jobsite access
• How efficiently modules can be set and stitched together on-site

What many first-time offsite users don’t realize is that two factories with the same square footage can have very different dimensional capabilities—based on equipment, jigs, line layout, and historical product mix.

Assuming “modular is modular” at this stage is a costly oversimplification.

These Are Only Examples — Not the Full List by any means.  The list can be extensive.

It’s important to be clear: size, weight, and dimensions are only examples of the considerations that matter.

They are visible. Tangible. Easy to ask about.

But behind them sit dozens of interconnected factors: production flow, material handling, weather protection, storage methods, sequencing logic, set crew coordination and their scope of work plus tolerance management—just to name a few.

Builders new to offsite aren’t missing these questions because they’re careless.

They’re missing them because they’ve never had a reason to ask them before.

They don’t know what they don’t know.

And that’s entirely reasonable.

Experienced advisors don’t approach offsite decisions by running through checklists.

They approach them by asking:
What does this decision trigger next?

If a dimension changes, what breaks?
If weight increases, what becomes more expensive or even not possile?
If production slows, what backs up behind it?

That way of thinking doesn’t come from theory.
It comes from having seen where things go sideways.

The Real Risk Is Discovering Constraints After You’re Committed

Once design advances, deposits are placed, and schedules are communicated, flexibility narrows.

At that point, previously hidden constraints become fixed realities—and learning becomes managing consequences.

That doesn’t mean offsite isn’t viable.
It means early decisions matter more than many first-time users realize.

Offsite construction can deliver tremendous value when approached thoughtfully.

But thoughtful doesn’t mean optimistic.
It means informed.

Builders and developers don’t need to know everything about modular systems.
They just need to recognize when they’re entering territory where experience matters.

Because in offsite construction, the biggest surprises aren’t technical failures.

They’re the things no one thought to ask about—until it was too late.Coming Next:
Why logistics, setting, and financial sequencing—not factory price—often determine whether an offsite project succeeds or struggles.

If you’d like to explore this further, connect with me today.

Bill Murray, Co-Founder of Offsite Innovators

Why the First Question in Modular Construction Isn’t About Price, Speed, or Design

For builders and developers exploring offsite construction—whether for single-family homes or multi-family projects—the first step often feels straightforward.

Call a modular manufacturer. Ask about pricing. Talk schedule. See what’s possible.

After more than four decades inside modular manufacturing and operations, I can tell you that this is where many projects quietly get off on the wrong foot.

Because the most important question doesn’t come up early enough.

It’s not about square footage.
It’s not about lead time.
And it’s not even about cost.

The first question should be:

Who is helping me evaluate this decision—and what real-world experience are they bringing to the table?

Modular construction isn’t a product you buy.
It’s a system you enter.

And systems have consequences.

One of the most common early assumptions builders make is that modular experience is transferable across project types.

It isn’t.

Single-family and multi-family modular construction may share vocabulary, but they operate under very different constraints. The moment repetition, stacking, fire separation, logistics sequencing, and site coordination enter the picture, the margin for error shrinks fast.

Lesson learned:
I’ve seen capable single-family factories accept multi-family work with the best intentions—only to discover midstream that their production rhythm, engineering assumptions, or scheduling logic simply didn’t translate. By the time that reality surfaced, redesign costs and schedule pressure were already locked in.

That’s not a failure of effort.
It’s a failure of early evaluation.

Early conversations almost always start with sales.

Salespeople are important. They open doors. They explain process. But they are rarely the people who feel the pain when assumptions break down on the production line.

That’s why one of the most overlooked questions is:

Lesson learned:
On more than one occasion, I’ve watched projects move forward based on well-meaning assurances, only to stall when operations leadership later flagged constraints that were always there—but never discussed. At that point, the question wasn’t what should we do, but how do we recover.

That distinction matters.

Most manufacturers will tell you they can customize finishes, layouts, and systems.

Often, they can.

What builders don’t always hear is how those changes ripple through a factory designed for repetition. A deviation that looks small on paper can disrupt workflow, reduce throughput, or create bottlenecks that affect other projects already in the queue.

Experienced advisors don’t ask can this be done?
They ask what does this change cost the system?

If that question isn’t asked early, the answer usually arrives later—in pricing adjustments, extended schedules, or uncomfortable trade-offs.

Many modular manufacturers balance repeat single-family customers with project-based work.

There’s nothing inherently wrong with that.

The risk comes when builders assume their project will be treated as a priority without understanding how production sequencing actually works. Design start dates, line start dates, and shipment dates are not the same thing—and confusion between them is a frequent source of frustration.

Experienced guidance helps translate those terms into reality before commitments are made.

Factory tours are valuable. But they’re most valuable when they validate information you already understand.

When builders arrive without having vetted experience, capacity, design process, and scheduling logic in advance, the visit becomes a sales presentation rather than a due-diligence exercise.

Plant cleanliness, quality control procedures, line flow, storage practices—these details only matter when viewed through an informed lens.

That lens doesn’t come from optimism.
It comes from experience.

Builders sometimes worry about pushing too hard or asking questions that feel uncomfortable.

In practice, experienced manufacturers respect informed buyers.

The real cost lies in proceeding without clarity—because once design begins, deposits are placed, and schedules are announced, leverage shifts. What could have been evaluated calmly becomes something that must be managed under pressure.

And pressure is rarely where good decisions are made.

Up Next:
Why size, weight, and dimensional assumptions quietly determine transportation cost, crane time, site sequencing—and why many builders don’t discover this until it’s too late.  They many times just don’t know what they don’t know. 

If you’d like to explore this further, connect with me today.

Bill Murray, Co-Founder of Offsite Innovators

Why Builders Are Being Forced to Rethink the Building Envelope – A Conversation with Charles Leahy, Founder of Eco-Panels

Builders today are operating in a very different environment than they were even a few years ago. Labor volatility, tightening energy and fire codes, more frequent extreme weather events, and rising buyer expectations around comfort and efficiency have all converged into a new reality.

Increasingly, the building envelope is no longer just a design choice — it has become a business, risk, and execution decision.

In this builder-focused conversation, we spoke with Charles Leahy, founder of Eco-Panels, about what he is seeing in the field, where traditional construction methods are beginning to strain under new demands, and how next-generation envelope systems are being evaluated by builders who want more predictability, speed, and long-term performance.

A Builder’s Conversation with Eco-Panels

Written Interview with Charles Leahy, Founder – Eco-Panels. The expert on a critical aspect of Building Sciences—the building envelope.

From your perspective, what has changed most for builders over the past few years that has forced them to rethink the building envelope?

Charles Leahy, Founder – Eco-Panels;

The world is changing. The weather is changing. Energy prices are rising. And building codes are getting tighter, requiring higher structural requirements, greater insulation requirements, and now in many jurisdictions a blower door test before a home can pass local building code.

After a spate of devastating weather events in North Carolina in the mid-2000s, the section of building code related to shear walls more than doubled in size from prior editions. We are hearing from builders across the South that they are seeing greater pressure from states and local jurisdictions to build stronger homes. More aggressive fire code requirements are also being pushed down into residential construction in some states — something that, beyond a 15-minute thermal barrier, was traditionally limited to commercial or multifamily work.

State and county jurisdictions are reacting to what they are seeing as stronger weather events across the country — whether wind- or fire-related — and they are driving construction toward a higher standard.

When builders first look at higher-performance envelope systems, what do they typically assume will be the biggest challenge — and where do you see that assumption breaking down in practice?

Charles Leahy:

I believe the greatest hurdle in achieving a high-performance building envelope is addressing thermal bridging. Builders often ignore this defect of traditional construction unless they are required by local code to address it.

If a builder wants to reduce thermal bridging using traditional materials, they face significant additional labor and materials to wrap the entire wall system in exterior insulation, and then deal with the complexity of attaching siding. Most builders do not pursue this route.

If thermal bridging is ignored, the focus often shifts to tightening the building envelope to pass a blower door test. Once that happens, builders must also address ventilation and indoor air quality, which can become quite involved. HVAC systems must be properly sized rather than relying on traditional rules of thumb.

The lowest-hanging fruit is often fenestration — better-performing windows and doors — since they are installed regardless. But focusing only on fenestration does not make a home truly high performance. Builders need all four elements working together: reduced thermal bridging, a tight envelope, properly sized HVAC with controlled ventilation, and quality fenestration.

Just as important, high-performance wall systems must never allow conditions that lead to mold, rot, or mildew. We have seen many cases where well-intentioned designs created serious moisture problems because permeability and air gaps were not properly accounted for.

Much of the conversation around panels focuses on materials and performance numbers. In your experience, what do builders care about first once they’re actually building homes at scale?

Charles Leahy:

Speed of installation. That is where our product shines for builders.

With Eco-Panels, there is no nailing of multiple splines and far fewer fasteners at panel joints. Window and door openings are pre-framed at the factory rather than being cut and framed on the jobsite. Because our closed-cell polyurethane foam core panels deliver greater insulating efficiency than traditional SIPs, builders can also gain more usable square footage — sometimes the equivalent of an entire small room.

One point that often gets overlooked is that people do not live in a panel — they live in an assembly of panels. The strength and performance of the home depends on how those panels come together. Traditional spline-based systems introduce many opportunities for error. By reducing construction complexity, Eco-Panels allow even lower-skilled workers to more consistently build stronger, higher-performing envelopes.

Eco-Panels is often described as a “high-performance” solution. From a builder’s standpoint, what does that actually mean day-to-day on a jobsite?

Charles Leahy:

It means faster installation, fewer inspections, and getting to a dried-in structure much sooner.

From repeat builders, we often hear that they can save roughly a month on the construction schedule. We have also had DIY builders achieve a certificate of occupancy in as little as nine weeks. Speed of erection is not typically associated with high performance, but when builders can take advantage of it, it becomes a meaningful benefit.

You’ve worked with both professional builders and highly capable DIY customers. What lessons from those experiences are most relevant for builders who may be evaluating envelope systems for the first time?

Charles Leahy:

Plan ahead.

Builders often tell me after the fact how valuable it was to work through the details in advance rather than reacting to whatever their framers delivered on site. Too often, builders trust trades to follow drawings precisely, only to discover downstream issues — sometimes starting with foundations that are slightly out of tolerance and affect everything that follows.

Builders are often very good at managing chaos and steering projects back on course. But working through envelope decisions early tends to improve outcomes for everyone and can significantly speed the overall process, even though many builders are not used to doing so.

For builders who sense that labor, codes, and buyer expectations are moving faster than traditional construction methods, what advice would you offer as they evaluate next-generation envelope systems?

Charles Leahy:

Find a system that is complementary — and accretive — to your existing toolbelt. It should add value by allowing you to build faster and better, not simply introduce a new learning curve while still requiring heavy labor.

If eliminating thermal bridging is a goal, Eco-Panels accomplish that by removing vertical studs altogether. If skilled labor availability is a concern, Eco-Panels combine framing, insulation, and sheathing into a single step that can be executed with fewer, lower-skilled workers.

If meeting the latest energy codes is a challenge, builders should choose systems that are inherently code-forward, offering insulation levels well beyond minimum requirements. And for air sealing, panel systems with interleaved edges and embedded cam-locks — rather than splines — can deliver airtightness that is far ahead of traditional approaches.

When we hear of blower door results above 1.0 ACH50, we often wonder whether a window was left open or a vent fan was not sealed.

Bill Murray Offsite Innovators:

Indeed, the world is changing!  Offsite panel manufacturers like Charles Leahy at Eco-Panels are ahead of the curve.  Thanks to Charles for sharing his insights into a whole new concept in panelization as a viable offsite alternative for the homebuilding industry. 

If you’d like to explore this further, contact Bill today.

Bill Murray, Co-Founder of Offsite Innovators

Beyond the Acronym: Why High-Tech Supply Chains Still Need High-Touch Leadership

I recently sat down for an interview with a graduate student who was researching supply chain issues in modular manufacturing. He was bright, driven, and clearly had done his homework. But about ten minutes into the conversation, I felt like I needed a translator or at the very least time to Google.

He was using academic terminology—things like “integrated vertical synchronicity” and “probabilistic modeling.” As he talked, I thought: If I walked onto the factory floor and used those terms with my purchasing manager or a key vendor, the conversation would hit a brick wall. 

It reminded me of one of the many lessons I’ve learned over 40 years as a GM in this industry: Technology and data are the backbone of a modern factory, but if we lose the “KISS” (Keep It Simple, Stupid) approach to our human relationships, even the most expensive system will fail. This isn’t just a manufacturing lesson; it’s a leadership mandate.

Don’t get me wrong: I am a believer in modern supply chain software. In today’s market, trying to run a modular plant on a legal pad and a prayer is a recipe for disaster. We need the data-driven systems that track our lead times, manage our inventory, and provide the “single source of truth” for our production lines. These tools allow us to see problems coming from miles away.  We must have constant and frequent communications throughout the manufacturing process.  Timing on those communications efforts is essential if not critical.  Beginning with the end in mind should guide all communications.

However, there is a dangerous trap in thinking that the software is the supply chain.

The software gives you the data point that a shipment is late. But the software can’t pick up the phone, understand the vendor’s challenge, and find a creative solution to get the line moving again. Data tells you what happened; relationships tell you why—and how to fix it.

1. Software is the Map, Not the Engine

We partner with and promote innovators who build incredible systems for our industry because those systems provide the “map.” They show us the terrain of our business. But a map doesn’t drive the truck.

In the modular world, the “engine” is a series of human connections. When a global supply chain crisis hits, the companies that survive are the ones that have integrated high-tech tracking with high-touch partnerships. Leadership is the grease that keeps those gears turning.

2. The “Acronym Barrier” Kills Efficiency

The student I spoke with used terminology that would confuse the very people responsible for making the supply chain work. In my experience, complexity creates “noise.”

If a guy on the line sees a quality issue with a component, he needs to be able to report it simply. The system should capture that data instantly (the tech side), but the leadership must be able to communicate it to the vendor without the “academic” fluff (the human side). In any industry, clarity is the only currency that matters.

3. Trust is the Ultimate Buffer

Academics talk about “safety stock” and “inventory buffers.” While those are necessary, and your software will tell you exactly how much of it you need, the most important buffer you have is trust.

When things go wrong—and they always do—trust is what keeps the wheels turning. If your vendor trusts that you’ll treat them fairly, they’ll prioritize you when materials get scarce. The most sophisticated ERP system in the world can’t manufacture the “goodwill” that a 20-minute coffee with a supplier can create.

4. Innovation Requires Both

Our goal at Offsite Innovators is to move this industry forward. That requires embracing the best new technologies and data-driven management systems available. But as we adopt these formal systems, we must ensure they serve the people on the floor, not the other way around.

The “KISS” approach to supply chain management means using the best tools available to simplify our lives—not to make them more academic or complicated.

I appreciate the work being done in universities to study our industry. We need their data to prove that offsite is the future. But we cannot let the “academic approach” distract us from the fundamental reality of leadership: We are people building homes for other people.

If we want to solve our supply chain problems, we need a “two-fisted” approach. One hand on the latest data-driven software, and the other hand shaking the hand of our partners.

Let’s keep the systems smart but keep the communication simple.

If you’d like to explore this further, connect with me today.

Bill Murray, Co-Founder of Offsite Innovators

Culture Is Simpler Than We Make It: Why KISS Works Better Than Any Program

I may be beating a dead horse, but I feel so strongly about this particular aspect of leadership that I feel compelled to beat the drum touting the significance of culture, not only in the Offsite world but across the entire spectrum.  It is without doubt the keystone of successful companies AND it doesn’t have to be an arduous complicated process.

After decades running modular factories, and more recently being exposed to many companies through advisory work, I’ve come to believe something that takes many leaders years to understand:

Culture isn’t complicated — we just make it complicated. And the more complicated it gets, the faster it falls apart.

We chase programs, slogans, consultants, and initiatives. We build binders nobody reads. We roll out systems that collapse the moment the first deadline hits. We often fall for the flavor of the day in attempts to establish the proper company culture.

Meanwhile, the teams that actually perform at a high level all have one thing in common:

They recognize the extreme importance of culture and they keep culture simple.

This isn’t theory. It’s not management jargon. It’s the practical version of what Patrick Lencioni talks about in The Advantage: healthy organizations outperform smart ones when people know exactly what matters.

And in modular manufacturing, clarity beats complexity every time.

Here’s what a KISS culture actually looks like inside a factory.

If you can’t explain what you expect in a sentence or two, nobody is going to follow it.

Lencioni calls this organizational clarity. On the factory floor, it sounds like:

– “This is what done looks like.”

– “This is your role.”

– “This is how we succeed today.”

Simple, direct, and impossible to misinterpret.

Confusion is costly — in time, quality, and morale. Clarity is free.

You don’t build culture with speeches. You build it with repetition.

The team watches what you do, not what you say. A KISS culture is built on small, predictable habits:

– leaders walking the floor

– the same expectations every day

– the same follow-through every time

– feedback delivered simply and respectfully

Consistency creates safety. Safety creates performance. Involvement of your people creates commitment.

Nothing kills culture faster than personal criticism disguised as “accountability.”

Attacking all problems by addressing the manpower instead of methods is the oft used approach to problem solving…..it is the first kiss of death.

A KISS culture separates people from problems:

– “Where did the process break?”

– “What step wasn’t clear?”

– “What do you need to do this right next time?”

This doesn’t let anyone off the hook — it actually holds people more accountable because the expectations are simple, visible, and fair.

Every factory claims it “respects” its people. Few show it.

Respect isn’t a poster. It’s:

– listening

– giving clear instructions

– providing the right tools

– treating problems as shared challenges

– assuming positive intent unless proven otherwise

It’s amazingly simple — and sadly rare.

This is KISS at its best.

Every healthy factory I’ve ever led or visited had leadership that did the small things right:

– saying thank you

– correcting privately, not publicly

– answering questions without irritation

– showing up when the line was struggling

– acknowledging mistakes — their own included

These aren’t dramatic acts. They’re simple behaviors repeated every day.

And they become culture.

You don’t need a new program, a new acronym, or a consultant to build a strong culture.

You need simple clarity.

Simple consistency.

Simple respect.

Simple accountability.

Modular factories fail for many reasons — but culture often fails first. And almost always because it got too complicated.

KISS works. It always has. And in this industry, it might be the most underrated advantage any leader can create.

Our ultimate goal at Offsite Innovators is to grow our industry…we need your help.

If you’d like to explore this further, connect with me today.

Bill Murray, Co-Founder of Offsite Innovators

Beyond the 6% Ceiling: How Offsite Can Finally Scale

If we’ve built the tools, the plants, and the systems—now it’s time to build a movement.

Across every segment of offsite construction — modular, panelized, component, light-gauge steel, and even HUD-code manufactured housing — there’s a shared belief that we represent the future of building. The efficiency is proven. The quality is measurable. The labor and housing challenges we solve are real.

And yet, despite decades of innovation and investment, offsite methods still account for only a small fraction of new construction. In the U.S., modular homes represent roughly 4–6 percent of new residential construction. Commercial modular projects add another 5–8 percent of the total market. Even when we include panelized, componentized, and factory-assisted framing systems, the overall footprint remains modest — and has been for years.

Globally, markets like the U.K., Japan, and parts of Europe have done somewhat better, but even there, offsite rarely exceeds 10–12 percent of new construction activity. For an industry that has so clearly demonstrated its potential, the question is unavoidable: Why are we still stuck in single digits?

The Missed Momentum

Those of us who’ve worked in or around modular factories know how much progress has been made — smarter automation, better design integration, new digital tools, and greater interest from developers, architects, and builders. But progress isn’t the same as growth.

What we haven’t achieved is sustained market momentum. Too often, our conversations stay inside the factory walls. We talk to each other, but we’re not always connecting our collective experience, as active participants, into something that moves the whole industry forward.

When I think back on my own years in modular manufacturing, some of the most valuable professional moments came not from plant upgrades or sales wins, but from peer roundtables and shared best practices. The candor in those discussions — about what was working, what wasn’t, and where we could improve — was eye-opening. No one had all the answers, but together we found better ones.  The most valuable collaborative efforts often came from informal group phone calls and/or small roundtable peer gatherings (and sometimes at the bar after a roundtable get together).

What’s Holding Us Back?

Part of the challenge is fragmentation. “Offsite” is an umbrella term, but inside it are many specialties, priorities, and languages — wood frame vs. steel, residential vs. commercial, panelized vs. volumetric. That diversity is healthy, but it also dilutes our collective message. When a builder or policymaker asks, “What is offsite construction, really?” they may get five different answers.

Another barrier is perception. Despite decades of success stories, the myths persist: offsite equals low-end housing, or modular can’t handle complex design. Those of us in the industry know better, but we don’t always speak with a unified voice to prove it.

And finally, there’s the matter of data — or lack thereof. Many sectors have detailed benchmarking, cost studies, and performance data. Offsite often doesn’t. We have countless anecdotes but too few comprehensive, comparable metrics. That makes it harder to attract investment, win over lenders, or reassure regulators.

What Would Growth Look Like?

Imagine what would happen if our share doubled — from 6 percent to 12 percent — across residential and commercial markets. That kind of shift would transform not just our factories, but the supply chain, workforce training, and perception of construction itself.

It would also take unprecedented cooperation: manufacturers sharing what works, developers bringing projects to the table early, design teams thinking modular from day one, lenders understanding factory-built value, and policymakers supporting modernized codes and financing.

The good news is that we already have the brainpower, experience, and technology. What’s missing is the collective energy to align those pieces.

An Invitation to the Conversation

At Offsite Innovators, we’ve always believed that ideas grow stronger when they’re shared. Maybe it’s time to revisit that spirit of open dialogue — the kind we used to find in roundtables, peer groups, or even the old factory tours where competitors swapped lessons over coffee.

So here’s the question I’d like to ask our readers:

What do you believe the offsite industry needs most to grow — awareness, collaboration, capital, or something else entirely?

There’s no wrong answer. Whether you’re a factory owner, developer, supplier, or designer, your insight matters. The industry can’t grow if its best ideas stay siloed.

If we want offsite to become more than a promising niche, we’ll need to approach growth the same way we approach innovation — together.

I encourage you to take 5 minutes and comment on this post.  Answer the question—“What do you believe the offsite industry needs most to grow?”  Collaboratively we can and will get this industry out of the rut we’ve been in far too long?

Our ultimate goal at Offsite Innovators is to grow our industry…we need your help.

If you’d like to explore this further, connect with me today.

Bill Murray, Co-Founder of Offsite Innovators

Hope Is Not a Market — The Last (and Most Avoidable) Reason Factories Fail

Enough negativity — this will probably be the last time I write about why factories fail. Not because the reasons have all been covered, but because I’ve spent enough time talking about the negative side of an industry I still believe has enormous promise.

That said, one more needs to be addressed, because it’s so common — and the most avoidable: building a factory before you’ve confirmed that anyone actually wants what you plan to produce.

Looking Back

In earlier articles, I talked about factories that launched without a clear understanding of their true costs — and how that single mistake can take down even a well-funded operation. I also touched on the lack of systems: how plants run on assumptions rather than data, how owners try to manage by memory, and how small errors multiply into major losses.

Both of those are killers. But even if you fix both — if you have accurate costing and strong systems — it won’t matter if you misread the market, or worse, never try to read it at all.

The Most Dangerous Assumption

They assume there’s demand because someone said so — a developer, an investor, a local official. They assume they’ll be competitive because “nobody else is doing this here.” They assume the market will come to them once the first walls go up. The old “build it and they will come” routine.

That’s not a plan. That’s hope. And hope, as I’ve learned more than once, is not a market. As Coach Lou Holtz said, “Hope doesn’t win ball games.”

This applies to startups and established factories alike. Startups are often led by enthusiasm and a good concept. Existing factories get comfortable with “what’s worked before.” Both can miss what’s happening right in front of them: a market that’s shifted, a product that’s lost relevance, or a price point that no longer works.

What Market Analysis Shouldn’t Be

When people hear “market analysis,” they picture expensive reports, focus groups, or consultants producing thick binders of data that nobody reads twice. That’s not what I’m talking about.

I’m talking about common-sense due diligence — the kind that can be done with a phone, a truck, and a notebook. You don’t need a professional research firm to understand whether there’s real demand. You just need to ask the right questions of the right people — and listen to the answers without bias.

What Market Analysis Should Be

Here’s what a practical, no-nonsense approach to market validation looks like — the kind I recommend to every client before they start pouring concrete or signing equipment leases:

– Talk to realtors. Not corporate ones — local realtors who actually sell in the market. Ask what’s moving, what’s sitting, and what price points get traction.

– Visit sales lots or model centers. See what’s being offered and what’s collecting dust. Talk to sales staff — they’ll tell you what buyers are asking for that they don’t have.

– Ask developers and builders. Find out what they can’t get right now. Is it affordable units, higher-end finishes, or production capacity? What makes them hesitate about modular or offsite?

– Call local lenders and appraisers. Ask whether they’ll finance modular in the target market, and under what conditions. If the local bank won’t fund it, that’s a red flag that can’t be ignored.

– Talk to building inspectors and zoning staff. Ask what’s being submitted and what’s getting built. They’ll tell you what’s “hot” long before the market data catches up.

– Identify who’s actually writing the check. In some markets it’s the homeowner, in others the developer or the investor. Each sees value differently.

– Define your market. Is it urban infill, workforce housing, coastal rebuilds, resort cabins? Each requires a different factory setup, design approach, and pricing structure.

I was absolutely amazed — and frankly flabbergasted — when I arrived at a $60 million plant a few years ago and learned that they had absolutely no idea what they were going to offer to the marketplace, let alone what they were going to build. They had done zero analysis… none! An extreme example for sure, but similar stories are all too common.

The Cost of Skipping This Step

The factories that skip this step often don’t realize their mistake until production begins. They have staff, systems, and materials in place — but no buyers lined up. So they pivot, discount, or chase new product lines midstream. That’s when panic sets in.

Suddenly the factory’s biggest challenge isn’t production — it’s sales. And that’s the hardest problem to fix when you’ve already built the plant and burned through capital.

Due Diligence Is Not a Luxury

For startups especially, feasibility studies too often focus on building design, logistics, and capital costs. Those matter — but the real feasibility question is: Who’s your customer, what do they need, and how do you know?

A factory that doesn’t answer that before breaking ground is a factory gambling with investor money, employee livelihoods, and its own future.

Market due diligence isn’t about expensive analysis — it’s about discipline. It’s about asking enough questions, in enough places, until the answers start to align. And if they don’t align, maybe it’s not the right market — or not the right time.

Moving On

This will be the last piece I write on factory failures. I’ve said what I need to say. The purpose of these articles was never to criticize, but to help prevent avoidable mistakes — the kind that have closed too many good operations.

The future of this industry doesn’t depend on more factories — it depends on smarter ones. Those that know their costs, measure their performance, and most importantly, understand their market before they start building.

Because in this business — as in most — hope is not a market.

If you’d like to explore this further, connect with me today.

Bill Murray, Co-Founder of Offsite Innovators

Systems That Save Factories — Seeing the Whole Picture Before It’s Too Late

In my last article, I wrapped up with a simple truth: factories don’t fail because they can’t build. They fail because they can’t see. Without systems that reveal the real numbers—the actual cost of what’s being built, when, and by whom—most plants are flying blind.

That problem doesn’t stop at costing. The absence of systems touches every corner of a factory floor—from scheduling and inventory to quality control and delivery. It’s a silent threat that often doesn’t show itself until the damage is done. By then, it’s too late to “tighten up the process.” The process was never really measured in the first place.

I’ve seen this pattern play out time and again. A startup offsite factory launches with enthusiasm, strong design talent, and a few key hires who “know production.” But there’s no defined structure—no consistent way to measure material flow, production rates, or true job costing. When the first large project hits, chaos follows. Units fall behind schedule, cost overruns appear, and management begins chasing symptoms instead of causes.

That’s when most realize they’ve built a factory without building the system to run it.

The good news? This doesn’t have to happen anymore.

Offsite and modular construction have reached a stage where data-driven systems are no longer “nice to have.” They’re essential. And that’s where companies like 4WardConsult.com are making a difference.

While I won’t dive into the technical details (my partner recently did a great job of that in his article on ERP vs. MES — Why Offsite Factories Need Both to Win), it’s worth emphasizing what that piece made clear: you can’t improve what you don’t measure.

4Ward has developed software designed specifically for offsite and modular factories—tools that don’t just track what’s happening but translate it into actionable information. When properly implemented, these systems bridge the gap between what management thinks is happening and what’s actually taking place on the floor.

It’s the difference between running your business based on memory and running it based on metrics.

Now, to be clear—this level of sophistication isn’t for everyone. Enterprise-grade MES and ERP platforms, like those from 4Ward, are an investment. They’re built with larger operations or those start-ups planning on controlled growth in mind. But that doesn’t mean smaller factories get a pass. The lesson applies across the board: whether your plant produces 20 modules a month or 200, you still need a system. It might be simpler, more manual, or tailored to your scale—but the discipline of tracking, measuring, and analyzing remains the same. Without it, you’re still flying blind, just on a smaller budget.

I’ve watched too many plants spend months trying to “get by” with spreadsheets or outdated ERP systems not designed for the modular world. It works—until it doesn’t. And when it doesn’t, the fallout is expensive. Missed deadlines, blown budgets, lost credibility with developers and GCs—it’s all avoidable if the factory invests early in the right systems.

That’s the lesson here: in this business, systems are not overhead. They’re infrastructure. Just like cranes, carriers, or production jigs, they are the framework that holds everything else in place.

If your factory is struggling to find the bottlenecks, to understand why profit margins don’t match your expectations, or to keep production schedules on track—don’t wait for the next crisis to expose the problem.

Start building visibility now.

And if you’re not sure where to begin, take a few minutes to learn what 4WardConsult.com offers. Their approach was designed around offsite realities—not retrofitted from some other industry. In my view, that alone sets them apart.

Because at the end of the day, what saves a factory isn’t luck, or even experience. It’s knowing—in real time—what’s really happening inside your walls.

If you’d like to explore this further, connect with me today.

Bill Murray, Co-Founder of Offsite Innovators

Why Some Factories Falter — and What Their Numbers Reveal

A new “Cause and Effect Series” by Bill Murray

I’ve been asked many times, “Why do some modular factories make it while others don’t?” There isn’t one single answer—there are patterns.

Over the next few articles, I’m taking a closer look at some of the most common causes I’ve seen firsthand, (both in my own company plus those of others witnessed through advisory assignments)—but, more importantly, the systems that separate the successes from the failures.

This first article tackles one of those quiet but costly causes: the absence of accurate, current costing and estimating systems. The effects often prove devastating.

The False Comfort of “We Know Our Costs”

In almost every struggling factory I’ve walked through, leadership believed they did know their costs. Spreadsheets existed. Estimating programs produced clean reports. Prices were set to be competitive.  (In one case the sales price was actually set exclusively on the competition’s price!  Think about that one.)

But when we dug in, two serious gaps appeared—both rooted in missing systems, not missing intelligence.

First, their estimating data wasn’t tied to current realities. Material pricing, labor rates, and production assumptions hadn’t been updated regularly—or at all. In a volatile environment like construction, that lag can be devastating. I’ve seen estimating models six months out of date that were already thousands of dollars off per module because of incremental cost increases that went unnoticed.

Second, very few factories “audit” their own results once the job is finished let alone during the manufacturing process. The actual material, labor, and overhead costs are rarely compared to the original estimate. That feedback loop—the one that validates or corrects assumptions—is often missing entirely.

So estimates remain unverified. They look professional and consistent, but they drift further from reality with every job. The plant keeps pricing future work on untested numbers, not realizing the gap between estimated and actual costs has widened to dangerous levels.

I’ve seen that gap quietly erase entire profit margins before anyone even noticed, or until it was history.

The System That Was Missing

When estimating and production operate in separate silos, numbers stop meaning anything. That’s the real issue I’ve seen over and over again—not that people don’t care about costs, but that they don’t have a system to keep those costs synchronized with reality.

A good system creates a closed loop between estimating, production, and feedback.

1. Estimating sets the baseline. Each bid starts with defined assumptions for material, labor, and overhead.
2. Production records the reality. As the job runs, actual costs are captured—not just material invoices, but man-hours, waste, and rework.
3. Feedback closes the loop. When the job finishes, someone compares what was expected to what actually happened—and documents the variance.

Without that loop, there’s no mechanism to catch drift. Estimators continue pricing work based on outdated standards; production teams fight fires without understanding the root cause; management thinks the margins look fine because no one has verified otherwise.

The good factories, after every project, the proper team members sat down with a one-page variance report—simple, color-coded, and brutally honest. If labor hours were exceeded, if material costs were exceeded, sometimes heated discussions took place.  If framing costs dropped because of a process improvement, that update went straight into the estimating database. The excellent factories performed weekly and in one instance even daily assessments and variance reports.

There is excellent software out there to steer proper costing and auditing, but it is useless, as is often the case, if the culture doesn’t demand essential disciplines to allow the data to drive results.

The Cost of Not Knowing

When a factory doesn’t know its real costs, the damage builds slowly and quietly. Jobs that look profitable on paper often aren’t—but no one discovers that until the cash runs thin.

Without verified data, every project becomes a guess. Some hit the mark, some don’t, and over time the misses outweigh the wins. By the time a P&L exposes the truth, the company has already spent the profit it thought it earned.


I’ve seen plants lose margin one assumption at a time: a few underestimated labor hours here, a small material overage there, a little overtime that never made it back into the estimating model. Nothing catastrophic—just a slow erosion that no one measured.

And when leadership finally starts asking why the numbers don’t match, the answers are all symptoms: “materials went up,” “labor is short,” “sales discounted too deep.” The real problem isn’t the conditions—it’s the missing visibility.

Once you put a feedback system in place—tracking actuals, auditing assumptions, updating estimates—those excuses disappear. The numbers stop surprising you, because they finally mean something.

The Takeaway

Factories rarely fail from lack of effort or intelligence. They fail from lack of clarity—and in manufacturing, clarity comes from systems.

When you don’t have a structured way to capture and verify your true costs, every bid is a gamble. When you do, you gain control—not just of your numbers, but of your future.

At one point in my career, I became a GM for a factory that was part of a privately held corporation.   The owners decided to offer for sale their entire company.  They had hired a consultant to guide the sale process.  One of the very first things he addressed was this:  Prioritize all systems and processes.  Show proof that they are in place and used.  Document all systems and processes, reduce them to writing.  It was the single biggest piece of advice we received.  It made a lasting impression on me as a GM.  It took us almost a year to get our act together.  It paid big dividends.  Ultimately sales, production, and finance finally start speaking the same language—one built on facts, not assumptions.

I’ve watched that shift happen firsthand. My team used this systems-based philosophy in a turnaround.  Once real costing systems are in place, confidence replaces guesswork.

That’s when a company stops reacting and starts managing.

At Offsite Innovators, we welcome your thoughts and comments.  We also welcome the opportunity to assist.  Don’t hesitate to contact us at:

If you’d like to explore this further, connect with me today.

Bill Murray, Co-Founder of Offsite Innovators